Neutralizing Power

Op-Ed

Tensions In East Asia

As tensions build in the South China Sea, some nations are positioning themselves to avoid conflict. Not wanting to get swept up in a war between the U.S., Russia, and/or China、both Vietnam and Mongolia have recently openly declared their neutrality. This past September at the U.N. the President of Mongolia, Ts Elbegdorj, declared, “Our national laws and international commitments are consistent with neutrality principles. … I am convinced that Mongolia’s status of permanent neutrality will contribute to the strengthening of peace, security, and development in our region and the world at large.”

Then, a few weeks later in October, Vietnamese Defense Minister, General Phung Quang Thanh, stated, “Relations with China and the United States are very important to our security. If [we] have good and friendly relations with both countries, we will then maintain a balanced position, maintain independence and self-reliance. [We] will not side with one big power to oppose another.”

These neutrality positions are important for world peace and for several reasons, also create new possibilities for South Korea.

First, this past September the People’s Republic of China celebrated the 70th anniversary of the end of World War II with a huge, muscle-flexing military parade. Surprisingly, the North Korean envoy was not allowed to meet with President Xi Jinping and had to watch from the sidelines. In stark contrast, South Korea attended for the first time and President Park Geun Hye was given top honors along side Xi Jinping, whom she has met with six times. For North Korea, it was an international middle finger, but for South Korea it was a shift away from the Cold War animosity of the past. By moving slightly toward China, Park Geun Hye can improve trade, negotiate with North Korea from a position of strength, and remind Washington not to take South Korea for granted.

Secondly, America’s Asian “pivot” policy leans on Japan. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s nationalism and new military assertiveness might dredge up the ghosts of WWII, but a strong Japan is what America wants. The U.S. is in no economic mood for yet another expensive unilateral foreign entanglement and feels it is time for other nations to start carrying their own weight. Japan is the logical choice and has been America’s ally since 1945 for political, geographic, and economic reasons. This means Korea will remain in Japan’s shadow relative to the U.S. for the foreseeable future. But more importantly, it allows Korea to remain wisely neutral in the event of a South China Sea conflict. War hawks abroad might talk boldly about confrontation, but when you live right next door to China’s 1.5 billion people, a more nuanced approach is required.

Lastly, U.S. foreign policy has been described by some as, “schizophrenic.” Every new administration changes what the previous administration did. Nothing has been consistent over the last decade except a love for drone strikes. Additionally, budget strains and domestic grumbling over U.S. defense spending has brought South Korea into the political spotlight. The boisterous presidential candidate Donald Trump echoed a growing neo-isolationist sentiment when he stated, “How long will we go on defending South Korea from North Korea without payment?” (South Korea pays about 1 billion U.S. dollars a year in support of its own defense.) And in conjunction with news columns like the Huffington/World Post’s July tirade by Cato Institute fellow Doug Bandow, who referred to South Korea as a “Welfare Queen,” it makes sense for South Korea to move closer to China as a hedge against future U.S. apathy.

The rise of China, Japan’s more active role in Asia, and growing U.S. isolationist views all point Korea in one direction for the 21st century – neutrality. And if major powers want a nuclear-free Northeast Asia, and America wants to lighten its defense burden, and China wants closer ties with an economically stable Korean peninsula, the quickest way to achieve all of these goals would be for world powers to greenlight unification and then immediately after withdraw all U.S. troops, allowing Korea to achieve full neutrality. Mongolia’s and Vietnam’s stance opens the door for this possibility and it is the path South Korea should take.