The 21st Presidential Election: The Birth of a “New South Korea”

By Park Yeonju

April 4, 2025. Yoon Suk Yeol, the accused, had been impeached. The long struggle of South Korea, which began in the cold winter, had ended. With Yoon’s removal from the presidency, we have confirmed the victory of democracy in South Korea once again. Citizens who took to the streets cheered, and those watching the live broadcast were filled with mixed emotions. According to the current constitution, if a president loses their qualifications, a successor must be elected within 60 days. Once again, the race to create a “new South Korea” with our own hands had begun.

The Campaign

Lee Jae-myung, who faced Yoon Suk Yeol in the 20th presidential election, ran as the candidate for the Democratic Party of Korea. And in the ruling party, the People Power Party (PPP), which was Yoon Suk Yeol’s party, Kim Moon- soo ran as the final candidate. There was a lot of noise in the PPP’s process of selecting the final candidate. Even though Kim Moon-soo was chosen through the primary, there was a strong movement within the party to unify around Han Deok-su as the candidate, even up until the last minute before the ballots were printed. The reason was the high approval rating of Han, the former prime minister. Several discussions took place. Kim Moon-soo, who was elected through a fair process, expressed that he would not give in. Eventually, through public opinion polls, Kim was confirmed as the final candidate in the presidential race. Lee Jun-seok of the New Reform Party registered as the presidential candidate the fastest, with a slogan promising to represent the voices of young people, especially “men”!

With just about two months left before the election for a new president, there was great interest in the movements of the candidates during this short race. Moreover, given that it was the “election” – the flowering of democracy that breathes new life into us – it was even more significant, especially right after an impeachment. After Yoon’s impeachment, the approval rating in early April was overwhelmingly in favor of Lee Jae-myung. It was a natural result. Since Yoon, a member of the PPP, had been impeached, there were voices suggesting that the PPP should not even field a candidate. As a result, the initial approval ratings were 37% for Lee Jae-myung, 9% for Kim Moon-soo, and 2% for Lee Jun-seok. Originally, Lee Jun-seok had left the PPP and formed his own party. As a third-party candidate, he did not garner significant support.

Lee Jae-myung’s approval rating remained overwhelmingly high for about a month. A movement to publicly support Lee Jae-myung also emerged in the conservative-leaning region of Gyeongsang-do. Compared to the previous election, this was certainly a change. Even in Gyeongsang-do, which seemed solidly conservative, the increasing support for progressivism was a clear sign of change.
After the failure to replace the PPP candidate with Han Deok-su, Kim Moon-soo was confirmed as their candidate, and the number of people supporting Kim Moon-soo’s steadfast actions grew. Although trust in the PPP itself decreased, more people began to support Kim’s refusal to give up. Lee Jae-myung’s approval rating also rose to 51%, but Kim’s approval rating surged to 29%, showing a remarkable increase.

One week before the presidential election, just before the ban on publicizing polls, Lee Jae- myung’s approval rating was about 49%, Kim Moon-soo’s about 36%, and Lee Jun-seok’s about 10%. Three debates took place, and it was evident that the gap between Lee and Kim had significantly narrowed. As election day approached, the traditional conservative base became more united, raising Kim’s approval rating. Lee focused on appealing to the centrist and conservative voters up until the day before the election. Meanwhile, Kim sought to unite with Lee Jun-seok in an effort to maximize conservative support. Their plan was to close the roughly 15% gap by drawing in Lee Jun- seok, who had around 10% support, and create a dramatic reversal. However, Lee Jun-seok also firmly declared that he would stay in the race until the end, showing his determination.

The Early Vote

The early voting took place over two days, May 30 and 31. The final turnout for early voting was 34.74%, the second highest since the introduction of early voting in 2014. The regions with the highest early-voting turnout were South Jeolla with 56.5%, North Jeolla with 53.01%, and Gwangju with 52.12%. These three regions comprised Jeolla and were the only regions recording an early-voting turnout exceeding 50%. All three candidates participated in the early voting, and they fought hard until the end. Then, on June 3, the much-anticipated main election day came with 14,259 polling stations open nationwide to elect a new president. Unlike regular presidential elections, the voting was held as a by-election, so the voting time was extended by two hours. The final voter turnout was 79.4%, the highest in 28 years. The region with the highest turnout was Gwangju with 89.3%, followed by South Jeolla with 83.6%.

Predicting the Vote

As the gap between the two candidates narrowed, tension remained high until the very last moment. In every election, the deciding factor is often the “floating vote” regions. It is said that looking at the voting results from North Chungcheong Province can predict the election outcome, as it has been accurate in every election from the 13th to the 20th presidential elections, since the restoration of direct voting in 1987. The candidate who received the most votes in this region has always been elected, making it the only region in the 17 metropolitan and provincial districts to hold such a record. Among them, the Heungdeok District of Cheongju had consistently predicted the winner with remarkable accuracy. In the 20th presidential election, the gap between the candidates in Heungdeok was similar to the nationwide voting percentage gap. Therefore, this region plays a key role as a barometer of public sentiment and can also predict the margin of victory, making it a traditional deciding region in elections.

Rather than the strong influence of a specific political party, the changing voting patterns of Chungcheong Province in each election are considered very important. Moreover, since this election was being held after the impeachment crisis, changes in the traditionally conservative region of Gyeongsang-do also deserved attention. Additionally, Gyeonggi Province, with the largest number of voters in the country at around 26%, was expected to act as the “deciding vote” that would determine the direction of the election. Furthermore, since both Lee Jae-myung and Kim Moon-soo previously served as the governor of Gyeonggi Province, all eyes were on who Gyeonggi Province would support. Seoul also has the second-largest number of voters after Gyeonggi Province. Excluding the 20th presidential election, Jeju Island had accurately predicted the winner in all previous presidential elections. People eyed with interest who would win the vote in Jeju and whether it would reclaim its “100% accuracy” title in this election.

Election Day Exit Polls

At 8 p.m., the moment that everyone had been waiting for arrived. According to the exit polls from the three major broadcasters, Lee Jae- myung led by more than 10 percentage points with 51.7%, compared to Kim Moon-soo’s 39.3%. The Democratic Party cheered, while the PPP camp was filled with silence. Lee’s strong performance was also evident in the traditionally conservative regions of Busan, Ulsan, and South Gyeongsang Province. In areas like Ulsan and Gangwon Province, where the voting difference was minimal, Lee’s support surpassed Kim Moon-soo’s.

Though this was based on exit polls, it was clear that the voting sentiment in traditionally conservative regions had noticeably shifted. In the regions with strong regional identities like Honam (Jeolla) and Yeongnam (Gyeongsang), voters stuck to their historically favored party’s candidate. As always, in Gwangju and South Jeolla, there was a blue wave, while in Daegu and North Gyeongsang, a red wave prevailed. However, the significant difference that was initially expected to be around 10% narrowed in the final results, with Lee Jae-myung at 49.42%, Kim Moon-soo at 41.15%, and Lee Jun-seok at 8.34%. At 2:30 a.m., Lee Jae-myung’s victory was confirmed. Finally, at 6:21a.m. on June 4, Lee Jae-myung was officially elected as the 21st president of the Republic of Korea (numbering is determined by terms of service).

The Jeolla and Jeju Vote

When analyzing the results in detail, Lee Jae- myung received 84.8% of the vote in Gwangju and 85.9% in South Jeolla. Kim Moon-soo garnered only 8%, and while these regions were traditionally strongholds for the Democratic Party, the ratio in this election was particularly wide. In Jeju, Lee Jae-myung secured 54.8%, and Kim Moon-soo received 38.4%, regaining the reputation of accuracy in predicting the presidential winner.

The Chungcheong Vote

Where did the floating vote in Chungcheong Province go? Kim Moon-soo recorded a higher approval rating than expected but was still eclipsed by Lee Jae-myung, with Lee receiving 47.7% of the vote and Kim Moon-soo 43.3% in South Chungcheong. In North Chungcheong the result was similar: Lee had 47.5% and Kim received 43.2%, showing a gap of about 4%. In Daejeon, Lee received 48.5% to Kim’s 40.6%. In Sejong, 55.6% went to Lee, while 33.2% went to Kim, showing a much wider margin compared to other regions of Chungcheong.

In North Chungcheong, Lee Jae-myung won in all four voting districts of Cheongju and the three districts of Central Chungcheong, which are considered strong Democratic Party areas. Even in Chungju, which traditionally has a strong conservative tendency, Lee Jae-myung surpassed Kim Moon-soo. In Heungdeok District, Lee recorded 49.49%, while Kim had 38.95%, a gap of 10.54 percentage points. This result showed that North Chungcheong remains a strong barometer of public sentiment.

The Gangwon and Gyeongsang Vote

In the regions of Gangwon, Daegu/Gyeongbuk, and Busan/Ulsan/Gyeongnam, Kim Moon-soo recorded his highest approval ratings. This result was different from the exit polls. It is assumed that, due to the unique circumstances of the election held after the impeachment, voters did not openly express their support for Kim. This demonstrates a wider-than-expected margin of error and shows that Kim’s predicted approval rating of 39% there was actually 41%.

The Seoul Vote

In this presidential election, Lee Jae-myung reversed the situation in regions where he showed weak support in the previous presidential vote, including Seoul. This time, among the 25 districts in Seoul, Lee had the upper hand in all but the districts of Gangnam and Yongsan. The key factor in determining the region’s election outcome was the “Han River Belt.” Areas such as Mapo, Jung- gu, Seong-dong, Gwangjin, Yeongdeung-po, Dongjak, Gang-dong, Yangcheon, and Dongdae- mun, which had supported Yoon Suk Yeol in the previous election, all shifted their support to Lee this time. Lee set up a Han River Belt special headquarters to target key regions, and it appears that this strategy paid off. In Jongno, the political center of Seoul, Lee led with 48.47%, 8% ahead of Kim Moon-soo.

The Gyeonggi Vote

The people of Gyeonggi Province also chose Lee Jae-myung. He won in 26 out of the 31 cities and counties in the province. With his victory, Lee broke the long-standing pattern of failure in presidential bids by former Gyeonggi governors. He secured over 50% of the vote in 34 out of the province’s 45 electoral districts. The district where he received the highest number of votes was Jungwon District in Seongnam, where he worked as a young factory worker. In Incheon, he also won in 8 out of 10 districts, achieving a majority of the vote in most constituencies there as well.

A New Republic of Korea

And so, on June 4, a new Republic of Korea was born. The long winter had ended, and finally, a new breeze has begun to blow across Korea. The government has changed. In the process of this presidential election, public sentiment shifted dramatically. It was a presidential race full of twists and turns, with no shortage of controversy. But now, hasn’t a new Korea finally arrived? Once again, we have elected our president with our own hands.

Let’s recall President Lee Jae-myung’s campaign slogan: “Beginning now, a true Republic of Korea.” He has emphasized livelihood issues and the economy. We can only hope that Korea’s long- stagnant economy and the hearts of its people will begin to thaw. However, the nation continues to show signs of deepening division. As we saw in the 22nd general election, the results once again clearly reflected a country divided between east and west.

“With his victory, Lee Jae-myung broke the long-standing pattern of failure in presidential bids by former Gyeonggi governors.”

People are becoming increasingly unhesitant in expressing their dislike toward those with opposing political views, and we are even seeing signs of exclusion. Yet, President Lee Jae-myung said during his inauguration, “There will no longer be politics of the left or the right. We will become a pragmatic, market-oriented government. I will put an end to divisive politics.”

Born out of the spirit of democracy, Lee Jae-myung is the 21st President of the Republic of Korea. As he has said, we hope that Korea will move toward unity rather than division, and that the rigidity of the past will melt away from the warmth of a spring day. We hope for a new Korea – a truly new Republic of Korea.

The Author
Park Yeonju is an undergraduate at Chonnam National University, majoring in political science and diplomacy as well as Chinese language and literature. Her third major is international development cooperation studies. She was born and raised in Gwangju and wants to promote the colorfulness of the city that she has been a part of for so long.

Cover Photo: The inauguration of Lee Jae-myung as the 21st President, at the National Assembly of the Republic of Korea. (@2_jaemyung / Instagram)